Donald Trump, the consummate deal maker, is turning out to be an epic failure when it comes to sealing the deal with delegates across the country. The self-proclaimed deal maker has had more than a few missteps in his search to secure unbound and bound delegates alike. The man Trump calls, “lying Ted,” has capitalized on this predicament and is now running circles around the “unstoppable Trump machine.”
The front-runner has enjoyed a handsome lead due to the low threshold for winning throughout the process so far. With over a dozen candidates to split the primary vote, it has been a cake walk for him. In a crowded field, all he had to do was maintain a roughly 35% voter base and that strategy carried him to many victories. Now that the field has significantly narrowed it’s apparent that Trump is struggling to move past someone who can win a plurality of the vote and into a true majority vote winner. The only majorities he seems to be able to unite are those in opposition to him. The nomination isn’t about pluralities, it’s about finding a consensus candidate that represents the principles of the majority.
According to Electionbettingodds.com, Trump’s chances of winning the nomination when the field was crowded peaked somewhere around 82%, now the chances of him getting to 1237 delegates sits at just 49%. At the same time, the likelihood of the convention becoming contested has risen to 59%. You would think this predicament wouldn’t present any real problem to the ultimate dealmaker, Donald Trump. Wel,l as it turns out when it comes to making the deals necessary to win over these delegates, Trump is getting “schlonged”. At this point, it’s very likely that if he fails to win the nomination in the first vote of the convention, he will be soundly defeated in a second vote. Most pundits agree the amount of delegates that would be unbound at that point are likely to turn on the Donald and hand it to Cruz.
One of the many reasons for Trumps failures to be competitive in the delegate fight is that he’s already turned off a lot of the actual folks who have been selected to become delegates. The incessant bomb throwing day in and day out have very real consequences in the body politic. Another failure of the Trump campaign is his nonexistent ground game. Trump prides himself on his ability to just show up, but it turns out candidates have reasonable ground games for a reason. Cruz, on the other hand, has a prolific ground game that is using a lot of the same technology that carried Obama to the nomination. It’s been widely reported that Trump staffers at the state level have been fired after primary votes, a curious strategy to say the least. This, of course, led to smart people at the state level and political activist to not be readily available during crucial delegate battles in the early delegate nominating states.
Only after losing a bunch of delegates initially did Trump bring in a ringer to stop the bleeding. The expert, Paul Manafort, was an adviser to the presidential campaigns of Republicans Gerald Ford, Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Bob Dole, and George W. Bush. Manafort worked to secure Delegates for the Ford campaign when he went into contested convention against Ronald Reagan in the ’76 primary. This fact would seem to spell disaster for the Cruz campaign but the hire may be a day late and a dollar short. The Trump campaign’s Delegate roundup has been so embarrassingly unsuccessful, Manafort himself has been forced to throw out baseless accusations as an excuse for their poor showings in these delegate contest.
Republicans at the state and county levels across the country have been meeting to select delegates, and the Trump campaign has been either MIA, unorganized or just loud and ineffective. As seen in countless articles, it’s been a pretty one-sided process. Cruz has managed to get the lion’s share in the delegate fight in Colorado, Iowa, North Carolina, Arizona, Louisiana, North Dakota, South Dakota, South Carolina and Wyoming and out of 168 national committee delegates, only 1 has shown support for Trump.This windfall of delegates could propel Cruz over the finish line during a contested convention giving him the nomination on a second vote when many delegates become unbound.
The unorthodox campaign strategy has paid dividends to the front runner up until this point. This strategy has shown to be incompatible with the hard-nosed political showdown in counties and state level showdowns. The Ted Cruz campaign has a significant ground game with no-frills, and retail politics is held as the premium. He has operatives and activist at every level and in nearly every state. Cruz has also shown a willingness to talk to any crowd large or small. Trump, on the other hand, has shunned smaller venues and even addressing state delegate gatherings is seen as beneath the Trump leviathan. To his detriment, he’s opted for giving speeches in mainly larger venues and keeping a minuscule staff and putting an army of surrogates on TV to shower the media with his presence in some form or another.
Trump and his surrogates haven’t made his predicament any better. They’ve done everything from complaining about the process, threatening to sue and even threatening to give out delegates hotel room numbers before the convention so Trump supporters can confront them. Most of the rules Trump is facing have been around for years if not decades. At the end of the day, it begs the question why doesn’t he just make those deals he’s always bragging about. Surely he ought to be able to convince a delegate to buy into the Trump phenomena of winning and other progressive populist rhetoric. So far, he’s been so inept, and even his children don’t know the rules in their state to vote for their father in the primary. Two of his children failed to register as Republicans now they’re stuck not voting in the closed primary.
At the end of the day, Donald Trump and his supporters need to understand a few things; the first being that this isn’t a purely democratic process, there are elements of democracy, but it doesn’t come down to who gets the most votes. They also need to understand that the parties Democratic and Republican are private organizations, so they aren’t beholden to the legal, political minutia elected leader’s face. They also need to know that winning a plurality of the vote has never been the standard for receiving the Republican nomination. This goes back to the Lincoln nomination. He wasn’t the front-runner going in, he just worked the delegates, played the game and he won. They also need to understand that Trump has only won 37% of the votes cast, so far that’s hardly a groundswell.
Trump has the responsibility to his supporters and his campaign to educate himself on the basics of this process. If he can’t come to understand this process he needs to hire people that can manage this clown show of a campaign, not the bullies he’s put in positions of authority in this campaign. If he’s the deal maker, he claims to be he should have no problem turning this train wreck around.
Even after hiring one of the leading consultants and a delegate strategist Trump still got his clocked cleaned in Colorado. Instead of admitting their shortcomings in the delegate hunt the front runner yelled cheater! His expert Manafort even likened the Cruz strategy to ‘geustopo tactics.’ As ridiculous as that sounds the Trump machine didn’t stop there the state party chairman Stave House had his address and phone number made public. The state party chair has received multiple threats, but I guess this serves him right. He must have forgotten we’re a populist nationalist movement now.
The county-level delegates who selected the national delegates for Colorado weren’t Washington insiders in fact 40% were first-time delegates. These are everyday people who take time off work and spend their own money to participate in a process that is open to any Republican party member in Colorado. Once again it’s as if the Trump campaign and all his supporter think that there entitled to win when there only half way into the game.
A Trump supporter who goes by the name Thomas Pain@Thomas1774Paine on Twitter leaked the address and phone number of the Colorado GOP chair, the GOP Co-Chair George Leing, and GOP Co-Chair Liley Nunez. This, of course, isn’t going to endear anyone to support Donald Trump if anything it may turn Colorado into a never Trump state. The supporter who did this isn’t tied to any campaign, but it speaks to the tone of these populist progressives. http://www.redstate.com/absentee/2016/04/11/intimidation-threats-trump-goons-now-giving-out-home-addresses-phone-numbers-in-colorado/Follow @FortySixNews